A long time ago, some of my friends invited me to go with them to Saginaw to see the horse carriage races. I had never been to one before so I was excited to go.
We got there late and missed the first race, so I was looking at the brochure and trying to decide which horse to bet on in the second race and how to do it. I didn’t know anything about the horses and I didn’t know how to decipher how important the stats on the horses were. So, I came up with my own system. I was going to bet on the horse with the best name.
I bet on the second horse in the second race and he won. I bet on the third horse in the third race and he won too! This was getting fun. I enjoyed sitting outside in the bleachers, laughing with friends, watching the horses and….. winning.
It was funny because a pattern was emerging. I liked the name of the fourth horse in the fourth race and the fifth horse in the fifth race so I bet on them too. And they both won!
Wow. What an exciting night. I looked at my brochure and to my chagrin the sixths horses’ name in the sixth race was Dumpy.
What do I do now? I had a bad feeling about a horse named Dumpy. Why would an owner name their race horse Dumpy? This didn’t seem like a good sign.
I’ve always been good with math and have learned to trust numbers and patterns to a certain degree. I hesitantly bet on Dumpy because I didn’t want to bail on a winning pattern. If it’s not broke, don’t fix it, right? But, on the other hand, I started out betting on names I liked and I didn’t like this one. A decision had to be made and I made it. I’m counting on you Dumpy!
Well, Dumpy lost.
What did I learn from this? What is the moral to this story?
NEVER bet on a horse named Dumpy!!!